Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project terrestrial species’ responses to climate change and are increasingly being used for similar objectives in the marine realm. These projections are critically needed to develop strategies for resource management and the conservation of marine ecosystems. SDMs are a powerful and necessary tool; however, they are subject to many sources of uncertainty. To ensure that SDM projections are informative for management and conservation decisions, sources of uncertainty must be considered and properly addressed. Here we provide ten overarching guidelines that will aid researchers to identify, minimize, and account for uncertainty through the entire model development process, from the formation of a study question to the presentation of results. These guidelines were developed at an international workshop attended by over 50 researchers and practitioners. Although our guidelines are broadly applicable across biological realms, we provide particular focus to the challenges and uncertainties associated with projecting the impacts of climate change on marine species and ecosystems.

Ample evidence has indicated shifts in distribution of fish populations in response to environmental stress. However, most studies focused at the whole population scale. This neglects the spatial dynamics between groups of different body size (body size groups), that fundamentally shapes the spatial structure of a population. Here, we explored the mechanisms that modulate spatial dynamics of body size groups, and applied our analyses to three North Sea fish populations which experienced severe declines in biomass from 1977 to 2019: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), and whiting (Merlangius merlangius). All three populations exhibited strong declines in the overlapped area between body size groups in winter over 43 years, yet their mechanisms differed. These declines were either due to (1) different magnitudes of contraction of the distribution area of body size groups; and/or (2) different speeds and directions of spatial shift among various body size groups, both increasing spatial segregation within populations. These patterns were either associated with ocean warming, and/or declining population biomass, and such associations often varied according to distinct body size groups. Our analytical approach provides a powerful tool for identifying vulnerable populations under environmental stress and can be generalized to study a variety of size/age structured populations at various ecosystem types.

Beta diversity patterns are essential for understanding how biological communities are structured. Geographical and environmental factors, as well as species dispersal ability, are important drivers of beta diversity, but their relative importance may vary across spatial scales. In this study, we evaluate whether beta diversity changes across geographical scales and analyse how different drivers affect turnover patterns of native seed plants in an oceanic archipelago, the Azores (Portugal). Using a 500 x 500 m resolution grid, we selected cells that are covered by one of the following habitats: native forest, naturalized vegetation and seminatural pastures. We calculated species turnover at three spatial scales: i) between islands, ii) between cells within each island, and finally iii) between cells of each of the habitats of interest in each island. We then calculated the contribution of dispersal syndromes (endozoochory, epizoochory, hydrochory and anemochory) to turnover at each of the scales. Lastly, we assessed the relationship between geographical and climatic distances and habitat composition with turnover. Turnover was higher at the smallest scale, particularly in seminatural pastures, and decreased with increasing spatial scales, a pattern potentially associated with the historical fragmentation and current patchy distribution of native forest and seminatural habitats in the Azores. Dispersal syndromes and habitat composition had a negligible effect on turnover at all scales. Geographical distance had a positive effect on turnover at all scales, increasing with scale. The relationship between turnover and climatic distance was only significant at the intermediate and small scales in specific islands and habitats. Scale plays an important role at determining the effect of the drivers of turnover, in particular geographical and climatic distance. These results highlight the need to carefully select the scale of analysis when studying turnover patterns, as well as identifying the potential drivers associated with each scale.

The distribution ranges and spatio-temporal patterns in the occurrence and activity of boreal bats are yet largely unknown due to their cryptic lifestyle and lack of suitable and efficient study methods. We approached the issue by establishing a permanent passive-acoustic sampling setup spanning the area of Finland to gain an understanding on how latitude affects bat species composition and activity patterns in northern Europe. The recorded bat calls were semi-automatically identified for three target taxa; Myotis spp., Eptesicus nilssonii or Pipistrellus nathusii and the seasonal activity patterns were modeled for each taxa across the seven sampling years (2015–2021). We found an increase in activity since 2015 for E. nilssonii and Myotis spp. For E. nilssonii and Myotis spp. we found significant latitude -dependent seasonal activity patterns, where seasonal variation in patterns appeared stronger in the north. Over the years, activity of P. nathusii increased during activity peak in June and late season but decreased in mid season. We found the passive-acoustic monitoring network to be an effective and cost-efficient method for gathering bat activity data to analyze spatio-temporal patterns. Long-term data on the composition and dynamics of bat communities facilitates better estimates of abundances and population trend directions for conservation purposes and predicting the effects of climate change.

Early warning signals (EWSs) represent a potentially universal tool for identifying whether a system is approaching a tipping point, and have been applied in fields including ecology, epidemiology, economics, and physics. This potential universality has led to the development of a suite of computational approaches aimed at improving the reliability of these methods. Classic methods based on univariate data have a long history of use, but recent theoretical advances have expanded EWSs to multivariate datasets, particularly relevant given advancements in remote sensing. More recently, novel machine learning approaches have been developed but have not been made accessible in the R environment. Here, we present EWSmethods – an R package that provides a unified syntax and interpretation of the most popular and cutting edge EWSs methods applicable to both univariate and multivariate time series. EWSmethods provides two primary functions for univariate and multivariate systems respectively, with two forms of calculation available for each: classical rolling window time series analysis, and the more robust expanding window. It also provides an interface to the Python machine learning model EWSNet which predicts the probability of a sudden tipping point or a smooth transition, the first of its form available to R users. This note details the rationale for this open-source package and delivers an introduction to its functionality for assessing resilience. We have also provided vignettes and an external website to act as further tutorials and FAQs.

A document by Douglas Sponsler. Click on the document to view its contents.